Looming debt crisis could flood canadian households
- - Jun 09, 2020
In Canada, the debt burden of households is increasing. Long before the coronavirus crisis, there were alarm signals, but now the population's debt can become a trigger for an economic crisis.
The coronavirus pandemic, which began as a public health crisis, has led to a gradually escalating economic crisis that is likely to last long enough and currently looks like a debt crisis and that could eventually engulf hundreds of thousands - if not millions-of canadian families. The growing accumulation of debt at the household level, combined with a decline in income to service this debt, are two phenomena characteristic of this pandemic. Women were particularly affected by the economic crisis associated with the pandemic. Self-isolation and the closure of many small and medium-sized business establishments, where women were mostly employed, led to a decrease in family income. Services - from salons and stylists to restaurants and tourism - are industries that are usually heavily dependent on women's labor. In Canada, there was a situation that, due to a long period of low interest rates on loans, the population reduced their savings and increased spending with credit money. Probably as a result of declining incomes, household savings have steadily declined over the past 10 years, with Canadians saving only about $ 3.60 for every $ 100 earned. On the other hand, in 1999, canadian households owed $ 106 for every $ 100 of disposable income. In 2019, this figure was already $ 176 for every $ 100 of disposable income - a debt-to-income ratio of 176 percent. And analysts predict a figure of 230 percent in the current conditions of the pandemic. And this is the economic risk of debt default, which has increased with the onset of the coronavirus. Major banks in Canada seeing such reporting results for 2020 increased their reserves to cover losses on loans by 11 billion dollars. This does not mean that banks expect that one day they will be forced to write off all of this, but they will certainly have to write off some of it. Government support and deferred payment on some of these debts give Canadians a certain false sense of security that actually allows them to defer the debt situation. But what will happen next? Will all debtors be able to recover their income? State support is designed for 3 months, and deferred payments are only for a few months. The canadian mortgage and housing Corporation, the Federal Crown Corporation that provides mortgage insurance for most canadian homeowners, recently told the House of Commons Finance Committee that it estimates that 12 percent of the country's mortgage holders have already entered into a deferred mortgage agreement with their Bank, and that this number could rise to 20 percent, or one in five debtors, by September. Launching the economy to a pre-tandem income level is the best way out. In the meantime, curbing the epidemic by restricting small businesses and closing children's institutions does not allow us to fully implement this. Another aspect of the economic situation is that 60 percent of the canadian economy depends on the level of consumption. The recovery of the economy depends on how consumers stimulate it with their purchases. Therefore, if there are households with weaker finances and the recovery will be long. There is a vicious circle. Low household income affects consumption, low business income does not allow employees to raise their wages, and low employee income forces them to save on expenses, including in order to pay off debts. All this leads to a long recovery period. .
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