In 2020, annual inflation will be 3.7–4.2%
Sep 19, 2020

In 2020, annual inflation will be 3.7–4.2%

According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, under the current monetary policy, annual inflation will be 3.7–4.2% in 2020, 3.5–4.0% in 2021 and will remain near 4% in the future, the regulator said.

The economy's continued downward deviation from potential creates disinflationary pressure. At the same time, earlier decisions to significantly reduce the key rate and the current soft monetary policy limit the risks of a significant deviation of inflation down from the target in 2021."In recent months, the rate of price growth has generally been slightly higher than the Bank of Russia's expectations. This is due to two main factors: an active recovery in demand after a period of self-isolation, as well as the weakening of the ruble due to a General increase in volatility in world markets and increased geopolitical risks," the Central Bank of the Russian Federation said in a press release. In August, annual inflation increased to 3.6% (after 3.4% in July), and, as of September 14, it was estimated at 3.7%. According to the Bank of Russia, the indicators of the current rate of consumer price growth, which reflect the most stable processes of price dynamics, are close to 4% in annual terms. At the same time, there is still heterogeneity in the dynamics of consumer prices, which is associated with uneven recovery of activity in various sectors of the economy.Inflation expectations of the population and businesses remain at an elevated level. Professional analysts ' expectations for inflation in the middle of next year are slightly lower than 4%, which reflects the predominance of disinflationary factors. On a longer horizon, their expectations are anchored near 4%, the Bank of Russia notes.

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