Will the US be able to overcome inflation
Oct 26, 2021

Will the US be able to overcome inflation

Inflation in the US has doubled and will continue to grow next year, Finance Minister Janet Yellen has admitted. Will Washington be able to take prices under control — the whole world is watching this, because the economic situation in the United States accelerates prices in almost all countries. Including in Russia.
The US authorities fear that inflation is getting out of control. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in an interview with CNN, shown on Monday, admitted that the country "has not seen such inflation for a very long time." But she hopes that inflation will fall to "normal levels" in the second half of 2022. "This will happen in the middle-second half of 2022," the minister added. Yellen also responded to the rebuke of former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, now a professor at Harvard University, who warned earlier about the inadmissibility of large-scale government spending, which is supposed to be under the plan of President Joe Biden. The ex-minister believes that the outcome of Biden's plan will be overheating of the economy and uncontrolled inflation. And a recession will follow. The current Treasury Secretary Yellen said that Summers is wrong in his forecasts. Inflation in the United States began to accelerate markedly in March and April - up to 4.2%. In the summer, the price growth reached 5.4% and after a slight decline in August returned to 5.4% in September. This is the maximum for the last 13 years. At the same time, the inflation target for the United States, that is, the same normal level, is 2%. American price records are a logical result of the long-standing problem of the US economy — unrestrained printing of money in order to maintain consumer and government demand, says Associate Professor of the Faculty of Economics of the RUDN Sergey Chernikov. According to official data alone, over the past year and a half, the US authorities have printed and injected more than $8 trillion into the economy. "This is more than all such "quantitative easing" over the past 10 years," says Chernikov. At the same time, dollars are "printed" in such quantities not from a good life, but because of the deep economic crisis, which has been "flooded" with money for more than a year. "Pouring more than a third of its own GDP into the economy in a year and a half and getting economic growth of a couple of percent is a clear sign of serious problems," Chernikov believes. He is skeptical about Yellen's claim that the US economy will recover quickly and inflation will return to pre-pandemic values. "This is possible only in one case: if the authorities stop the issue, and the entire accumulated money supply evaporates (for example, in the case of a sharp drop in stock markets). A sudden cessation of emissions without a clear external reason means political suicide for the country's leadership, which is not to be expected," Chernikov argues. Whether inflation in the United States will return to the level before the pandemic and if so, when — this is now the main uncertainty factor and a headache for the entire ruling elite of the United States, says Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic analysis Department at Finam. Last Friday, for example, the head of the Fed, J. Powell acknowledged that the factors of increased inflation could last the whole of next year. "Gradually, Powell and the heads of other central banks recognize that inflation has turned out to be stronger than expectations, and an inflationary spiral is not excluded. This is when additional financial incentives will unwind the price flywheel," says Belenkaya. According to the expert's forecast, if inflation in the US slows down next year, it will only be relative to current values, but it will still remain above the Fed's target. Freedom Finance analyst Alexander Osin also believes that a decline in the consumer price index in the United States is possible in the second half of next year, but not to the level of the official target of 2%. "Rather, to the marks near the upper limit of their values until 2020, it is about 3% per annum," says Osin. The transition of inflation to the range of 2.5-3% would be a relatively optimistic option, adds Belenkaya.

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