The estimation of CMASF even better official. In an analytical note, Vladimir Salnikov, the head of the real sector, and Dmitry Galimov, a leading expert of the cmacp, remind that Rosstat data in April predictably recorded a decline in industrial production — the index for the corresponding period of the previous year was 93.4% in April after 100.3% in March. The index to the previous month (with the elimination of seasonality) is estimated by the state Agency at 94.3%. As a result, output returned to the level of the first half of 2018. Ciacp experts note that the reality was significantly better than the expectations of most analysts, a number of which assumed a decrease of 10% or even more. According to the cmacp, the index for the corresponding period of last year was 95.4% in April, and by March of this year (with the elimination of the seasonal factor) — 96.7%, that is, better than Rosstat. The sectors that produced consumer durables, clothing and footwear, as well as certain investment-demand goods, primarily motor vehicles, became the" anti-leaders " with the most decreased production. The second tier of victims-further down the production chain-are producers of the relevant raw materials. The authors of the note note a unique feature associated with the nature of the crisis — a strong decline in the production of petroleum products due to falling mobility of the population, as well as an increase in production in pharmaceuticals. In more detail, at the level of individual activities, in April 2020, analysts of cmacp highlight the following features of the output dynamics: · maintaining almost stable (at the March level) volumes of hydrocarbon production (both oil and gas); · a pendulum decline in food production after the hype of "pre — quarantine" purchases by the population in March, April to March: -0.5% after +1.1% in March (here and further seasonality is eliminated); · maintaining generally stable output volumes in the chemical industry (based on a stable demand for mineral fertilizers, which occupy more than 2/3 of the output of all chemicals); · a drop in production of building materials and glass (by 11.2% by March); · unexpected — against the background of obvious serious problems for the main buyers in the domestic market — a weak decrease in output in metallurgy (-2.3% by March); factor that supported the release, was the increase in export deliveries; · restrictions on mobility led to the emergence of "new victims" in the current crisis — the production of petroleum products (-6,6% in March); · reduction of production across the entire spectrum of engineering products; antileech — manufacture of motor vehicles (two-fold decline in March and almost three times — by April 2019.); · among consumer goods, in addition to the mentioned motor vehicles, the main problems are in the production of household appliances, sporting goods (a two-fold decline by March), jewelry, furniture (a decrease of almost a third). Based on operational data (electricity consumption, Russian Railways transportation), the authors of the analysis conclude that by the end of April, restrictions on population mobility began to ease and economic activity resumed, which continued in may. This factor will act towards a positive drift of the production index in may. On the other hand, experts expect ciacp to begin reducing oil production, as well as demand for a number of other commodities. Thus, they conclude, the results of may may be worse than April, but not too significantly (by 0.5-1.5% p. p.). Source: https://www.eg-online.ru/news/420381/
The drop in industrial production was better than most analysts expected
- - May 24, 2020
Evaluating Rosstat data on the reduction of industrial production last April, experts From the center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting note that the result was significantly more optimistic than the expectations of most analysts.
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